Archive for Wind power

Two Renewable Energy Penny Stocks

I asked my readers at Alternative Energy Stocks what companies they wanted to know more about, and the two most requested were a transmission and wind company (CPTC.OB), and a company looking to make oil for biodiesel from algae (PSUD.PK)

Click through the links to read the results of my research.

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CSP for Dictators

When I heard
France had offered to provide a nuclear reactor
to power a desalinization
plant in Libya, it knocked me for a loop.  I do believe in carrots to show
countries that we don’t always get along with that there is some reason to be on
our good side, but I fail to see any circumstances under which adding one more
batch of radioactive material (even if not bomb-making grade) in a troubled
region of the world is going to aid our long term security.

If we want to help Gaddafi (or
perhaps pay him off for returning hostages
,) wouldn’t it make more sense to
give him something just a little less dangerous?  Concentrating Solar Power
(CSP) is ideally suited for Libya’s hat and dry climate, and it works well for
desalinization… why not use this opportunity to advance CSP technology, and
not have to worry about proliferation to boot?

That’s the question I ask in my most recent Alternative
Energy Stocks
article.  And while I’m at it, I ask similar questions
about our relations with Iran and North Korea. 

Click
here to read the entire article.

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Transmission Stocks.. not exciting enough?

My AltEnergyStocks column this week is about investment opportunities in transmission, but to judge by the comments, readers are much more interested in direct investment in wind.

This is not particularly surprising to me… electric transmission is both complex and boring. It’s also absolutely necessary for our transition to a sustainable energy economy. As a contrarian, the lack of interest in my readers makes me more bullish; I love sectors with great prospects that no one is interested in talking about (or buying) yet.

An interesting parallel is my article on the polysilicon industry, which I wrote last July. At the time, only my regular readers read it, but in the last few months, now that the companies involved have risen another 50-100%, it’s consistently one of my most popular, despite the fact that there’s a good chance that the silicon supply crunch may soon ease up.

I wonder how many people will be reading my transmission column eight months from now?

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Inverter Stocks: A Backdoor to Solar and Wind

My column on AltEnergyStocks.com this week is about the companies that make the inverters which transform the DC or wild AC current produced by solar panels and wind turbines (respectively) into the type of AC power used by the grid. It begins:

    Whenever there is a gold rush, the people who make the real money are seldom the gold miners, but rather the suppliers to the miners that come home with the lion’s share of the profits. This is not because there is not an incredible amount of money to be made in mining gold, but because the nature of a gold rush is that too many optimistic miners are encouraged by the early profits of a few to rush to pursue too few opportunities.

    To many, the rush into solar stocks seems to be just that sort of gold rush. The boom in solar IPOs certainly reminds me of the type of feeding frenzy in which incautious investors are likely to get burned. And we are also seeing some other signs of rampant speculation, where investors are buying poorly managed (or even dishonest) companies with almost the same fervor of well managed ones. There’s little doubt that the future is bright for solar power, but picking solar companies that are going to survive and thrive in that bright future is becoming increasingly difficult in an increasingly crowded field.

    In a gold rush like this one it makes more sense to look at the suppliers.

Click here to read the rest of the article.

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Visual Comparison of Electricity Generation Technologies

I just put together a couple graphs for a talk I’m giving on Monday to give people a visual feel of the various technologies for generating electricity.  These come with a gigantic caveat: the numbers are far from precise.

With changing technologies, it’s impossible to represent any of this with a single number anyway.  I’m trying to show how the technologies compare to each other, and I used four parameters:

  • Cost ($/MWh),
  • Availability (better the closer the profile of the technology matches a normal demand curve (wind is bad, baseload is okay, dispatchable is best, solar),
  • Emissions (and I count waste storage when it comes to nuclear),
  • Bubble sizes represent the size and durability of the resource (I’ve tried to combine in one number how much power we can get from the resource, but also how long supplies of fuel will last.) 

In both charts, the “best” technologies are in the upper left (low cost, low emissions, and available when we need them.)

I know that I’m going to upset a lot of people because I was too harsh with their favorite technology, so feel free and comment on the numbers I’m using, but also please provide references for where you get your numbers.  Most of these are off the top of my head, so their accuracy is admittedly questionable.   Here are the numbers I used to make the graphs.

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Holistic Approaches to Energy Problems

H. L. Mencken said, “For every human problem, there is a neat, simple solution; and it is always wrong.”  When it comes to solving the problems of peak oil and global warming, I also think that the loudest barking is up the wrong tree.  We look for the quick fix, trying to find a substitute energy source that allows us to change the way we do things little as possible, when the real problem is actually what we’re doing, not how we’re doing it.   We need holistic solutions, not quick fixes.

Too abstract?  Here are some concrete examples:

 Problem: Peak Oil

Quick fixes: Ethanol and slight increases in vehicle efficiency standards.

Holistic solutions: Change our driving culture and infrastructure, by changing the way car use is priced from fixed charges to a per mile basis (“Pay as you drive”).   Removing subsidies to use cars when other forms of transport are available, and redesigning our cities to make them easier to get around on foot, bike, and public transport.  Like other holistic solution, all these steps increase safety and reduce congestion, reduce obesity and associated health problems, as well as reducing the use of gasoline.

Problem: Wind and Solar are intermittent resources, but coal produces too much CO2 and natural gas prices are rising rapidly.

Quick Fixes: Nuclear power and “Clean” Coal.

Holistic Solutions: Shift our demand for electricity to times when it is available, by using time of use pricing, energy storage and demand alignment, and distributed energy storage such as plug in hybrid vehicles.

Investing opportunities:On thing that’s striking about these examples is it’s much easier to find investment opportunities in the quick fixes than in the holitistic solutions.  To invest in ethanol, you can just buy ADM or one of the multitude of ethanol stocks that have been going public recently, but I have yet to come up with a satisfactory way to invest in better urban planning (except buy a house in a walkable community, which is something I’m planning on doing this summer.   Stapleton is the community.  I currently live there, but I’ve been renting and waiting for the end of the housing bubble.  I actually don’t think that housing is going to go up again any time soon, but I’m tired of waiting.) 

The investment landscape is a little better when it comes to energy management.  Itron and Siemens both have divisions that help utilities manage their grids better, and there are many battery and other energy storage companies to choose from.  Still, it’s a lot harder to pick through battery companies than to just buy a nuclear powered utility or uranium miner.

Holistic solutions, by their nature, have weak boundaries… the benefits tend to be diffuse, and spread over society as a whole, so it is difficult to charge fairly for them.  This, I think, is why there are so few companies pursuing them when they can pursue a quick fix that they can charge for up front.  

Companies have an obligation to their shareholders to make money.  It’s our job, as human beings, to work towards regulations that make it easier for companies to make money with holistic solutions that actually solve the problem than it is to make money with quick fixes that just cover the problem up.

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Canadian RE picks

There’s a good rundown of public Candian Renewable energy companies in the Globe and Mail today by Richard Blackwell.  They mention all of my favorite Canadian companies, and even one I had not yet heard about.logo

One note, there are several Canadian Income Trusts listed.  These are currently very volatile because of changes in thier tax status.  The extra volatility will undoubtedly lead to some excellent buying opportunities, but they are much more volatile than your standard income investor is probably ready for.  Where once I might have bought them for my more conservative clients, now I’m looking at them for my more aggressive clients.

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