Archive for Renewable Energy

Three Upcoming Public Appearances

Tuesday, Oct 19, 6pm-8pm, Springfield MA. Which Clean energy Investments are Right for You?

Thursday Nov 4, Making Plays in Alternative Energy, Panel at Inside Commodities Conference, The New York Stock Exchange, NYC.

Tuesday, March 8, 2pm-5pm. Half day workshop. Greening Your Portfolio: How to Select Clean Energy Mutual Funds, Exchange Traded Funds and Stocks

Comments off

Renewable Energy World Podcast: The Renewables Gap

As a long-time listener to the Stephen Lacey’s weekly podcast, I was happy to join in as he takes an in-depth look at the Renewables Gap: the question of where the energy is going to come from to power the necessary transition to a clean energy economy, an issue I looked at in Managing the Peak Fossil Fuel Transition.

I’m in great company on this podcast, so if you don’t tune in for me, you might want to know what Bill McKibben has to say about it.

You can download or listen to the podcast here.

Comments (2)

Community Solar Gardens

A new bill being considered in the Colorado legislature would create "Solar Gardens." Solar Gardens allow people to participate financially in owning part of a solar array even if they do not have a suitable site on their own property. My reading of the proposed legislation is that subscriptions in a Solar Garden would be financial securities, and fall under securities laws. That’s probably a good thing.

Solar for Everyone

Solar panels are elitist: They cost a lot of money, and only homeowners with good solar access can usefully install them. This means that renters and people who can’t come up with at least $5,000 to $10,000 worth of cash or credit can’t own them. That’s the problem Colorado House Bill 10-1342 (HB1342): Community Solar Gardens aims to correct.

HB1342 defines a Community Solar Garden(CSG) as "A solar electric generation facility with a nameplate rating of two megawatts or less… where the beneficial use of the electricity generated by the facility belongs to the subscribers to the community solar garden." A subscriber is a "retail customer of a qualifying retail utility who owns a subscription and who has identified one or more physical locations to which to which the subscription shall be attributed" withing the same county or municipality as the CSG. The bill allows subscribers to change the premises to which a subscription is attributed, and also to sell them to other qualifying subscribers, something which is necessary in case a subscriber were to move out of the county or the utility’s territory.

It’s a worthy idea, although local solar installers are concerned that the superior economics of large installations will eat into their market share, by easing the requirements in House Bill 10-1001 for customer-sited generation. People who own perfectly good sites for rooftop solar may instead choose to buy a CSG subscription because of the convenience and potentially lower price. I think fears that residential customers who are good candidates for rooftop solar might instead subscribe to CSGs are overblown. Although the economics may be better, buying solar in Colorado is not yet a great investment because of the cost an return involved. Instead, I believe people are investing in solar because it gives them satisfaction to think that they are using green energy, and because they want to show off their environmental bling to their neighbors. I know that some people are more interested in the bling aspects of solar panels than the economic aspects, because otherwise there would not be a market for fake panels in Japan, although I don’t know of anyone who knowingly bought fake solar panels in the US.

On the other hand, there is currently a multiplier in the bill which would allow 2 kW of CSG subscriptions to substitute for 3 kW of rooftop solar that I think needs to be fixed to avoid undermining the residential set-aside of Colorado’s renewable energy standard as envisioned in HB 1001.

Energy Sprawl

My greatest concern with the bill is not that it will cause a move towards large installations, but that it will lead to more ground-mounted installations taking up open space, contributing to Energy Sprawl. No matter what you think about the economics of photvoltaics, one advantage that they have over almost every other type of electricity generation (both fossil and renewable) is that they can be placed on otherwise unused rooftops and other structures, giving a use to otherwise wasted space. Only energy efficiency and conservation have less physical impact on the environment than rooftop solar. Some people have told me that their air conditioner ran less after they put solar on their roof.

Any law which makes solar more likely to be ground-mounted than rooftop is a step in the wrong direction. I think the bill should be amended to prohibit CSGs from being ground-mounted, effectively limiting them to large rooftops and other structures such as awnings for parking lots. This would also have the effect of doing something to limit the practical size of CSGs to available rooftops, which would probably make the solar installers a bit happier.

The Secondary Market for Community Solar Garden Subscriptions

Provisions for a secondary market for CSG subscriptions are included in the bill, since a subscriber moving out of the county in which their CSG is located will not be able to benefit from their subscription. The secondary market and and other security-like characteristics of subscriptions may make them a useful financial tool for small investors. Most importantly, a CSG subscription is (as intended) an excellent hedge against rising electricity prices.

The only real reason to hold a CSG subscription for the long term is as a hedge against rising electricity prices because, like all utility-subsidized solar installations in Colorado, the utility ends up owning the Renewable Energy Credits (RECs), which are defined as all the “environmental attributes of the electricity.” Although most people with solar panels don’t understand this, the fact that they cannot legally claim the RECs means that they are using electricity that is just as dirty as any other Coloradan, with the exception of direct purchasers of RECs or Carbon Offsets, such as Windsource or Colorado Carbon Fund subscribers.

Although the secondary market for CSG subscriptions is likely to be very illiquid, it will probably become a good direct indicator of local expectations for utility rates. CSGs will not be much use to speculators, however, because there are restrictions in the bill which limit the investment to only 120% of estimated electricity usage at the designated physical location of the subscription. Nevertheless, experienced local market professionals with an understanding of market psychology may be able to make small profits trading subscriptions, since the illiquid and unprofessional nature of the market will likely make prices extremely volatile and subject to strong behavioral biases. When electricity rates are rising, subscription prices will likely overshoot their true value as potential subscribers overestimate future increases, and prices will likely undershoot if falling natural gas prices lead to falling interest in CSG subscriptions.

Allowing investors into the subscription market would probably create a more liquid and stable market for subscriptions, but such an outcome is unlikely because of the general public distaste for speculators. It’s also impractical because of the fact that payments to subscribers are at the retail electricity rate, which is considerably higher than the owners of commercial solar farms are allowed, and hence are effectively subsidized by all utility customers, over and above the direct subsidies given to encourage solar in Colorado.

CSG subscriptions have other aspects that will be familiar to investors. The law allows for the CSG to finance the purchase of a subscription (buying on margin.) It also allows the payments for electricity production to either go to offset the subscriber’s electricity bill, or to go to the CSG sponsor. In the latter case, I could see a small subscriber buying a small subscription, and enrolling in the equivalent of a Dividend Reinvestment Plan (DRIP): rather than cash payments, the electricity generation would be used to increase the size of the CSG subscription over time, until the subscriber decided to start taking cash payments. A CSG with a large number of subscribers enrolled in DRIP-like plans might add a new solar module to the farm every month, in order to keep up with the growing subscriber base.

CSG subscriptions could become a valuable financial planning tool for retirees and others on fixed incomes. Because a CSG subscription rises in value with utility rates, an owner would be better able to budget for the utility bill, no matter how wildly electricity prices gyrate. As subscription prices fall with the falling cost of photovoltaics, I can see the purchase of a CSG subscription becoming standard financial advice for retirees.

CSG Subscriptions as Securities

Although professional investors and speculators will have at most a limited role in the trading of subscriptions, CSG subscriptions may legally be securities. The legal definition of a "Security" is an investment in an enterprise with the expectation of profit from the efforts of other people. If I’m right and the draft law is not changed, CSG subscriptions will fall under Colorado securities regulations. (Because CSG subscriptions cannot be sold outside the state, they are clearly matter for Colorado security regulators.)

For small CSGs set up by community organizations, this is unlikely to have a tremendous impact, because securities laws include a number of exemptions for sales to a small number of related individuals. (Note that this is not intended as legal advice! I am not qualified to give legal advice, and even a small CSG should need to consult with someone familiar with the relevant laws.) For large CSGs with many subscribers, securities law may actually require the delivery of a prospectus and fall under a variety of other rules about communications that apply to the CSG developer and its representatives. In general, this is probably a good thing, since it provides a strong legal framework under which regulators will be able to sanction unscrupulous CSR developers who might be tempted to cold-call unsophisticated utility customers and over-promise the benefits of a small subscription in a Solar Garden.

Conclusion

The intent of Community Solar Gardens is a good one, because it allows many more people the opportunity to hedge their electricity price risk. The people in most need of such a price hedge, those living on small fixed incomes, generally do not have both the home ownership and credit that installing a solar system requires. So I’m glad to see Colorado pioneering this concept, and it will be very interesting to see how CSGs and the market for their subscriptions evolve when the final bill passes. With luck, and a few people emailing Claire Levy, the bill’s sponsor, that final bill will have been amended to exclude ground-mounted Community Solar Gardens, and help preserve Colorado open space.

I also hope that some among the majority of my readers who are not in Colorado will suggest your own legislators consider local variations of this idea.

Tom Konrad PhD CFA

Comments (10)

2% National Coutput -or- 10,000 Cows per MW

A commenter on my recent pro-transmission article questioned some statements of mine about the availability of renewable electricity from cow manure.  I had stated that 

  1. It was most likely baseload.
  2. There was not much of it in many states.

The first observation comes from the fact that the digester is sized so that
it runs as much as possible to produce the best economics.  Manure also
breaks down over time, and so is likely to yield more electricity if used as
quickly as possible after it’s produced.

Total Cow Output (Coutput?)

I thought it would be interesting to run some numbers and see how much
electricity might be available from cow manure.  First I had to come up
with some numbers for kWh/cowyear.  I found an example of a 50 kW engine running 14h/day on the produce of 300 cows.

That’s 850 kWh/cowyear, or about 100 W/cow, or 10,000 cows/MW.  A single cow produces enough manure to run one incandescent light bulb (or four CFLs) year round.

The US has about 100 million cattle, capable of producing 10 GW of electricity (if all the manure was gathered and processed in anaerobic digesters,) or 85 million MWh/year.  Total US Electricity production in 2007 was 4,208 million MWh, so 100% conversion of cow power into electricity could supply 2% of total US electricity.

100% conversion is a rather heroic assumption, especially for pastured cows, but I’m not including other types of livestock (pigs, chickens, etc.) so 2% of electricity seems like a reasonable potential estimate for total anaerobic digestion of manure. 

2% is actually a higher number than I would have expected, although that potential for electricity generation is unlikely to be reached, since much might be converted to liquid fuels for transport.

Comments (1)

Is There a Tradeoff Between Economics and the Environment?

Tom Konrad Ph.D.

California’s RETI process lends insight into the near-term prospects of Solar, Wind, Geothermal, and Biomass.  

In September, California’s Renewable Energy Transmission Initiative (RETI) released their Phase 2A report, which outlined potential transmission corridors to collect renewable energy from Competitive Renewable Energy Zones (CREZ) that had been identified in previous phases.  As part of Phase 2A, they also screened each CREZ for environmental impact, and the potential difficulty of obtaining land for renewable energy development.  

I previously looked at the results from Phase 1A and gained some insight into the cost of renewable energy technologies.  However, what renewable energy projects actually get built has to do with a lot more than just economics.  If it raises too many environmental concerns, such as infringing on endangered Mojave Ground Squirrel habitat, it isn’t going to get built.

Drawing on the spreadsheet "Supplemental Materials, CREZ Data" I put together the following charts, graphing the economics of each type of renewable energy in each CREZ against the expected environmental impact of that CREZ.  

Each circle represents one type of renewable energy at one of 35 CREZs.  Concentric circles in different colors appear where a single CREZ offers multiple types of renewable energy development.  The only difference between the two graphs is the size of the circles.  In the first graph, circle sizes represent the potential annual energy production (GWh/yr) of a CREZ, while circle sizes in the second shows power rating (MW.)  Geothermal and Biomass resources are relatively larger in the first graph because these are typically baseload technologies generating electricity near peak capacity all the time, while solar and wind are variable.

The cluster of circles in the middle right represent resources outside California: they were not rated for environmental concerns, so I assigned them an arbitrary value in the middle of the range in order to display them on the charts.

Economic/Environmental Tradeoff?

I found it surprising that there is little evidence of a tradeoff between economic viability of CREZ’s and environmental impact.  In fact, the circles in the graphs above are generally clustered along a line from the lower left (high environmental impact, bad economics) to the upper right (little environmental impact, good economics).  A tradeoff between economic viability and environmental concerns would manifest itself in a clustering along a line from the upper left (bad economics, little environmental impact) to the lower right (good economics, large environmental impact.)

Considering these four major renewable energy technologies, as they might be deployed in California, there is no real tradeoff between economics and the environment.  The best economics coincide with the least environmental impact.  If we were to include energy efficiency in the analysis, the trend would be even more pronounced: energy efficiency has the best economic profile of all, yet avoids the use of energy and hence does less harm to the environment.

The exception here is biomass.  The small green dots don’t show a pronounced trend in any direction, meaning that there may be some tradeoff for biomass.  Such a tradeoff would not be surprising, because harvesting plant matter on a large scale is bound to have significant ecosystem impacts.  Note that Biomass here does not include such technologies as waste to energy, which can be environmentally benign, or even an improvement compared to land filling.  In this study, the biomass in remote regions that do not yet have transmission, since lack of sufficient transmission was one of the requirements to be a CREZ.

With clean energy, it may actually be possible to do well while doing good.

Comments off

The Algonquin Power Income Fund

I recommended the Algonquin Power Income Fund as a renewable energy income investment back in January, and as part of my ten clean energy picks for 2009.

Since then, both the stock and the ten picks have been doing well in comparison to the market, but Algonquin has entered into a couple deals, while I look into in a recent update on the Algonquin Power Income Fund.

Comments (2)

Renewable Energy and Grid Integration Strategies Compared

Here is a comparison of the costs of various renewable electricity generation technologies, based on a California transmission study.

Similarly, I also recently wrote two articles comparing the costs of various grid integration strategies: Electricity Storage such as Batteries, Thermal Storage, Compressed Air, and Pumped Hydropower, as well as Demand Response, Smart Grid, and Transmission. Both have some charts allowing visual comparison of the technologies.

Comments (1)

Older Posts »
Follow

Get every new post delivered to your Inbox.

Join 154 other followers