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25x’25

I spent much of the last week at the 25x’25 “Twenty-Five by Twenty-Five” second implementation planning meeting.  25x’25 is a coalition advocating the vision that “By 2025,
America’s farms, forests and ranches will provide 25 percent of the total energy consumed in the
United States, while continuing to produce safe, abundant, and affordable food, feed and fiber.”   That’s at least 25% of our energy from renewable sources.

            25x’25 is an open alliance; the participants are the organizations who have endorsedthe 25x’25 vision outlined above.  These include 18
US Senators, 91 Congressmen, 18 state governors, 4 state Legislatures (including
Colorado).  I attended the conference as the representative of the
Colorado Renewable Energy Society. 

            I highly encourage my readers to endorse 25x’25 (you can endorse as an individual, or as an organization, or both.)  Your endorsement helps them demonstrate that a broad swath of Americans support the 25x’25 vision, and will help convince the US House and Senate to pass the concurrent resolutions for 25% of the nation’s energy supply to come from renewable sources.

We are currently in the process of coming up with our vision of how
America can achieve 25x’25.  Any endorsing individual or organization can participate.  The goal is agree on a series of recommendations (the Implementation Plan) as to how we can achieve the 25x’25 vision.  When the Implementation Plan is complete, which we plan to achieve by January, in time for the next congressional session, all partners will have a chance to endorse the plan.

Since the whole process is by consensus, and the 25x’25 goal is an ambitious one, it would be easy to believe that the Implementation Plan will turn out to either be watered down to the point where it does not say anything, or end up endorsing so many points of view that it would be ludicrous to call it a plan at all.

Having now participated in two conference calls and two days of face-to-face meetings, I’m happy (and somewhat surprised) to report that we’re actually managing to form a consensus among a large group of people and organizations you would not expect to get along under ordinary circumstances.  For this, I can only shake my head in wonder at the diplomacy and perseverance of the Steering Committee.  They managed, though two days of what could have turned into a verbal free-for-all, to keep us all focused on the need to work together to reach the very ambitious goal we’ve all agreed upon.  (In that same spirit, and understanding that many of the participants have been willing to voice their true opinions and step away from the party line, I will not name any names here.  This also has the advantage of covering for my lousy memory for names.)

How do they do it?  By keeping us focused on the fact that we all agree on the goal: 25% of our nation’s energy from renewable sources by 2025, and reminding us that we’re never going to get there by half measures.   The second thing they did was keeping the discussion focused on “Yes, if…”: continually reminding people to stay in the mode of working together, and instead of thinking about all the reasons that something was impossible to accept, to instead say “I could accept that if it were this were also to happen.”

So my kudos to the people I met on the steering committee.  I was impressed.

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You Can’t Hide from Peak Oil in Big Oil

Last week, Russian Natural Resources Minister Yuri Trutnev signed an order to cancel part of Shell’s Sakhalin-2 license on environmental grounds.  Russia is also pressuring Exxon about cost overruns in a related project.  A triumph for environmentalists over Big Oil?  Hardly.

shell.jpgMost analysts agree that this is an attempt by the Russian government to renegotiate an oil and gas deal struck when prices were low.  Thinking back on what Russia did to Yukos, and Chavez forcing foreign oil firms to renegotiate contracts in Venezuela, the trend is clear:  Countries rich in fossil fuels are increasingly re-writing the rules to their liking, with little regard to the desires of foreign capital.

Given that 90% of the world’s oil and gas is controlled by state owned firms, private companies have little bargaining power, yet desperately need access to new reserves. 

Big Oil needs Russia more than Russia needs big oil: they’re going to have to settle for a much smaller take than they negotiated 10 years ago.  As oil prices rise in response to the peaking of world oil output, realpolitik will continue to trump contracts.  Western, publicly held oil firms will be the losers, as will their investors.

How can we invest to protect ourselves from rising energy prices, if Big Oil is at the mercy of every oil-rich dictator around the world?   I see two choices: fossil fuel reserves in western countries: coal mining companies and tar sands, or renewable energy sources.

Tar sands and coal both have the problem of causing high greenhouse gas emissions.  The process of extracting oil from tar sands releases 80kg of greenhouse gasses per barrel of oil extracted (and that is before the oil is used.)  The extraction of tar sands has caused Canada’s greenhouse gas emissions to increase 24% since 1990, despite the fact that they are obligated under the Kyoto protocol to reduce emissions by 6%. 

Coal is also carbon intense.  So while both coal and tar sands are relatively safe from political risk due to opportunistic regimes, both are likely to become relatively less economic in the face of possible restrictions on greenhouse gas emissions. 

Oil Shale is a boondoggle, and requires even more energy to extract than tar sands. 

This brings us back to investing in renewable energy and energy efficiency companies, both of which will benefit from rising energy prices and restrictions on greenhouse gas emissions.  The problem here is that many of them are start-ups with little or no revenues, let alone earnings.  Right now, I like energy efficiency best, since many renewable technologies have been the subject of a feeding frenzy over the last year.  Although things have calmed down over the last couple months, energy efficiency is still more economic than most renewables, and subject to a lot less hype.

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Investing in renewable Energy workshop, Oct 17

I’ll be teaching a workshop on “Investing in Renewable Energy”on Tuesday, October 17, from 6 to 8 pm, at the National Renewable Energy LaboratoryPhoto of NREL Visitors Center Visitor’s Center in Golden (pictured).  This will be geared towards people who do not have a lot of experience in the financial markets, and I’ll cover several different approaches to take depending on your sophistication, risk tolerance, and investable assets.

There should also be plenty of time for quesiton and answer.

The workshop is sponsored by the Colorado Energy Science Center, who provide workshops and information to the public on Energy Efficiency for the public.  They also publish Smart Energy Living,

 an excellent magazine which explains how your home uses and wastes energy, and gives you the tools to make educated choices.

The workshop cost $10 at the door, or $5 for Smart Energy Living or Colorado Renewable Energy Society members.  All revenues go to support CESC.

Space is limited, so make sure to Register if you plan to attend.

Directions to the NREL Visitor Center are here.

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National (and Colorado) Tour of Solar Homes, October 6

Note: This post was originally for the 2006 Tour. The 2007 Tour of Solar Homes will be on October 6, 2007. See the original post after the break.

———————Info about 2007 Tour of Solar homes————————

Colorado Solar Tour link
Colorado Tour of Solar Home Flyer
For Southwest Colorado, there’s some info on the SWCRES website.
For Fort Collins area tour, see NCRES Website
For other states, go to the National Solar Tour link

———————Info about 2006 Tour————————
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