Archive for June, 2009

Market Predictions

Predicting market moves is notoriouslly difficult, but I’m feeling pretty good about my recent efforts.
On October 11, 2008, I stoped being a permabear and said, “the market as a whole now seems to me to be fairly valued.” The S&P 500 closed the previous Friday just below 900; today it closed at 919.32. In the fear that abounded last October, it was a hard call to be even that bullish, bit it seems to have worked out.

On June 2, I said we were near a market peak/ The S&P 500 closed that day at 944.74, and is currently down 3% almost a month later, having only bearly exceeded that number by a fraction of a percent.

Since I’m currently short-term bearish, I’ve started a series of articles not to by now, but to buy when a market decline puts them back on sale. Here are may clean enrgy shopping list articles so far:

  • Transmission stocks
  • Energy Efficiency Stocks
  • Clean Transport Stocks
  • Why market timing makes sense
  • Two Landfill Gas and Three Geothermal Stocks
  • Five Solar Stocks
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    Ethanol, Cellulosic Ethanol, and Advanced Biofuels

    Last week, I attended the 2009 Fuel Ethanol Workshop and the Advanced Biofuels Workshop, writing two articles.  The first is a commentary on what the corn ethanol industry needs to do to rehabilitate its image, and the second looks into how the stock investor can benefit from emerging advanced biofuel, cellulosic ethanol, and
    algae technologies.

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    Renewable Energy and Grid Integration Strategies Compared

    Here is a comparison of the costs of various renewable electricity generation technologies, based on a California transmission study.

    Similarly, I also recently wrote two articles comparing the costs of various grid integration strategies: Electricity Storage such as Batteries, Thermal Storage, Compressed Air, and Pumped Hydropower, as well as Demand Response, Smart Grid, and Transmission. Both have some charts allowing visual comparison of the technologies.

    Comments (1)

    Solar Stocks

    In May, I went to Solar 2009.

    One panel I attended led to a series of articles on Solar stocks:

  • The outlook for solar stocks
  • Why First Solar (FSLR) is a risky bet.
  • Why Solar Millenium may have what it takes.
  • I also particpated, with presentations on the best incentives for solar investments, and with an analysis of large scale electricity storage, as well as alternative renewable electricity integration strategies.

    Charles also attended, and took a look at the implications of the removal of the $2000 cap on the residential Investment Tax Credit.

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